Employment and investment in France in 2013, as seen by Trendeo

The following lines open a longer summary that we have just distributed to our customers. It provides an overview of the French economy at the start of 2014. The data commented on are those of theObservatoire de l'emploi et de l'investissementa business intelligence and economic and regional analysis tool available by subscription.

The press has picked up on some of our analysis, including Le Monde, Les Echos and l'Usine Nouvelle. These articles are listed on a special page.

At the beginning of2013, we wrote that the French economy was " settling into a depressed period ". Twelve months later, we are unfortunately still in a depressed economic climate, with very few positive signals.

The recovery from the 2008-2009 crisis was interrupted in mid-2011, and we have been on an uninterrupted downward slope ever since.

At the start of 2014, the French economy is still in a bad way , according to the data we collect on a daily basis. Other indicators corroborate our observations. For example, the Markit Purchasing Managers' Index for January remains below the 50 threshold indicating growth in activity.

This depression is not violent, but all the more pernicious for it. The general tone is gloomy. Job losses are stable, lower than in 2009. In fact, the economic downturn is invisible, and is rooted in a prolonged decline in job creation, including in sectors that were previously strong providers.

As a result, the French economy as a whole is increasingly characterized by a wait-and-see attitude.

In detail, the main highlights of 2013 were:

- The retail sector is a case in point: in 2010, nearly 32,000 net jobs were created, while in 2013, this balance reached its lowest level since 2009, with 3,500 net jobs created. This trend is taking place against a backdrop of stable job losses every year, but job creation halved.

- In theinformation and communications sector, software development was down on 2012, but the good performance of telecoms operators led to an overall improvement in this sector in 2013.

- Themanufacturing industry stagnated in 2013, at a similar level of job losses to 2012.

- Certain structural trends are cause for concern: for the first time since 2009, research & development is shedding more jobs than it is creating. Similarly, jobs linked to green investment are failing to reach the threshold of 1,000 net creations.

- Geographically,Île-de-France remains the leading region for gross job creation.

- The capital region ranks first in seven of the top twenty job-creating sectors in France.

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The government has just launched a supply shock that we can only hope will trigger a rebound in the French economy.

If we equate the drop in job creation with a problem of demand, while job losses are more a reflection of problems of supply, we are tempted to conclude that our observations show that the current problems have more to do with a weakness in demand than a crisis of supply.

This interpretation can only be supported by further observations beyond the scope of our data. In any case, our customers can attempt to analyze the data for 2013 and early 2014 on their own behalf, in real time.