Investment and employment in France in September 2012

Last September, we published a summary of the economic situation at the start of the 2012 academic year. This note was sent to our customers and a number of journalists, and is available for download below. The following passage is the introduction to the note.

Enjoy your reading, and don't hesitate to contact us for more information about our services.

David Cousquer, Managing Director of Trendeo and founder of the Observatoire de l'emploi et de l'investissement.

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The data presented here comes from the Trendeo Investment Observatory. They are provided to illustrate the capabilities of this innovative tool for analyzing employment and investment trends. Our customers use this database for business intelligence and analysis of regional and sectoral business conditions.

In September 2012, the economic climate deteriorated sharply, with job creations down and job losses up at the same time. This situation has only occurred twice in the last thirteen quarters - in the third quarter of 2010 and the second quarter of 2011. The outlook for the fourth quarter will depend on a number of factors, discussed below. First and foremost, we'll need to know whether public-sector jobs will start to fall again, accompanying the decline in private-sector employment, or whether they will, on the contrary, cushion this trend. The possible upturn in services will also be important. In fact, among the sectors that have been creating jobs since 2009, services - trade, software, catering and personal services - are predominant, but are trending downwards as the year draws to a close.

For sectors shedding jobs, it's developments in theautomotive sector that will determine fourth-quarter results. The sector has already surpassed the 10,000 net jobs lost in the third quarter, largely as a result of the PSA Group's announcements. More generally, plant closures are continuing, while plant creations are slowing down: we have now closed 1,132 plants since January 2009. The only positive factor at the end of the year was the buoyant offshore wind energy sector: the investments announced as part of the second call for tenders are driving all green investments, and should exceed 10,000 net new jobs in 2012.

These contrasts between sectors are mirrored at regional level: since 2009, the regions have achieved highly contrasting results.

At the start of September 2012, the economic situation is in a very poor state. The French economy has not reached the rate of job losses seen in 2009, but could come close if the fourth quarter follows the trend of the third, with a reduction in job creation due to the drop in activity in services, stagnant public sector jobs and sustained job losses in industry.

The following note summarizes and details these figures. Our aim is to highlight the diversity of the information provided by the Observatory. Subscribers to this database can delve deeper into the aspects of particular interest to them.

Trendeo - Investment and employment conditions in France in September 2012 by Trendeo